Key takeaways (December housing snapshot):
- Active listings rose ~12% year over year, giving buyers more options than last December—but the pace of gains has slowed since summer.
- Active listings slipped under 1 million for the first time since April, a reminder that supply is still tight even with annual improvements.
- Total inventory remains ~12.5% below 2017–2019 norms, meaning the market hasn’t fully returned to “typical” pre-pandemic conditions.
- Local markets are telling very different stories. National and regional averages can hide big metro-by-metro differences.
What the regions are showing:
- Northeast + Midwest: still tighter and more price-resilient, reflecting lingering pandemic-era shortages.
- South + West: generally more inventory expansion with softer price performance compared to the tighter regions.
Metro “benchmarks” vs. outliers (why averages can mislead):
- Some metros tracked their region closely (benchmarks), while others diverged sharply (outliers).
- Northeast: Providence accelerated faster than peers, while Pittsburgh tracked closer to regional norms.
- Midwest: Cincinnati reflected the regional trend, while Milwaukee stood out with a different inventory/price mix.
- South: Nashville aligned more closely with the region, while Washington, D.C. posted much larger inventory growth.
- West: San Diego outperformed benchmark Riverside, signaling local demand/supply dynamics that don’t match the broader region.
Pre-pandemic inventory check: who’s recovered and who hasn’t:
- 9 of the 50 largest metros are now 25%+ above pre-pandemic inventory, led by San Antonio (+49.1%), Denver (+48.3%), and Austin (+42.3%).
- 16 of the 50 largest metros remain 25%+ below pre-pandemic levels, led by Hartford (-76.2%), Providence (-57.1%), and Chicago (-55.9%).
Bottom line:
Inventory is trending in the right direction nationally, but the recovery is uneven. Buyers and sellers should focus less on national headlines—and more on what’s happening in their specific metro.